New Residential Construction Report: November 2011

Today’s New Residential Construction Report showed that in November, both single family permits and starts increased from October with both measures continuing to show tepid results when compared on a year-over-year basis.

While the traditional business media jumped on this report as an indicator that housing is on the mend, closer inspection shows that the majority of the "strength" was in multi-unit structures, particularly structures with five or more units while single family activity remains historically subdued.

Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, increased 1.64% from last month to 435K single family units (SAAR), increasing 3.57% above the level seen in November 2010 but remaining an astonishing 75.81% below the peak in September 2005.

Single family housing starts increased 2.29% to 447K units (SAAR), but dropped 1.54% below the level seen in November 2010 and a stunning 75.48% below the peak set in early 2006.

With the substantial headwinds of elevated unemployment, epic levels of foreclosure and delinquency, mounting bankruptcies, contracting consumer credit, and falling real wages, an overhang of inventory and still falling home prices, the environment for “organic” home sales remains weak and likely very fragile.

New Residential Construction Report: September 2011

Today’s New Residential Construction Report showed that in September, single family permits declined while single family starts increased from August with both measures continuing to show tepid results when compared on a year-over-year basis.

Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, declined 0.2% from last month to 417K single family units (SAAR), increasing 3.47% above the level seen in September 2010 but remaining an astonishing 76.81% below the peak in September 2005.

Single family housing starts increased 1.7% to 425K units (SAAR), but dropped 4.92% below the level seen in September 2010 and a stunning 76.69% below the peak set in early 2006.

With the substantial headwinds of elevated unemployment, epic levels of foreclosure and delinquency, mounting bankruptcies, contracting consumer credit, and falling real wages, an overhang of inventory and still falling home prices, the environment for “organic” home sales remains weak and likely very fragile.

New Residential Construction Report: August 2011

Today’s New Residential Construction Report showed that in August, single family permits increased while single family starts declined notably from July with both measures continuing to show tepid results when compared on a year-over-year basis.

Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, increased 2.5% from last month to 413K single family units (SAAR), increasing a slight 1.98% above the level seen in August 2010 but remaining an astonishing 77.03% below the peak in September 2005.

Single family housing starts declined 1.4% to 417K units (SAAR), dropping 2.34% below the level seen in August 2010 and a stunning 77.13% below the peak set in early 2006.

With the substantial headwinds of elevated unemployment, epic levels of foreclosure and delinquency, mounting bankruptcies, contracting consumer credit, and falling real wages, an overhang of inventory and still falling home prices, the environment for “organic” home sales remains weak and likely very fragile.

New Residential Construction Report: March 2011

Today’s New Residential Construction Report showed a slight bounce off of last months exceptionally weak results with both single family permits and single family starts which rising while the new home market remains historically distressed.

Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, increased 5.7% on a month-to-month basis to 405K single family units (SAAR), dropping a notable 25.3% below the level seen in March 2010 and an astonishing 77.47% below the peak in September 2005.

Single family housing starts increased 7.7% to 422K units (SAAR), dropping a notable 21.1% below the level seen in March 2010 and a whopping 76.85% below the peak set in early 2006.

With the substantial headwinds of elevated unemployment, epic levels of foreclosure and delinquency, mounting bankruptcies, contracting consumer credit, and falling real wages, an overhang of inventory and still falling home prices, the environment for “organic” home sales remains weak and likely very fragile.