On The Stamp: Food Stamp Participation February 2011

As a logical consequence of the prolonged economic downturn it appears that participation in the federal food stamp program is continuing to rise.

In fact, household participation has been climbing so steadily that it has far surpassed the last peak set as a result of the immediate fallout following hurricane Katrina.

The latest data released by the Department of Agriculture shows that in February, an additional 11,517 new recipients were added to the food stamps program, an increase of 11.65% on a year-over-year basis, while household participation increased 13.97%.

Individual participation as a ratio of the overall civilian non-institutional population has increased 10.78% over the same period.

The latest results show food stamps participation continuing to grow but at a notably slower rate and coming nearly simultaneously with a correlated decline in the total unemployment rate likely indicating that both indicators are defining a peak.

Still, participation continues to increase with nominal benefit costs climbing a lofty 11.37% on a year-over-year basis to $5.889 billion for the month.

Constuction Spending: March 2011

Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released their March read of construction spending showing near-cycle low levels of spending for residential construction while indicating a slight improvement for non-residential spending.

On a month-to-month basis, total residential spending increased 2.61% from February falling 8.13% below the level seen in March 2010 and a whopping 66.14% below the peak level seen in 2006 while single family construction spending declined 1.00% since February falling 9.38% since March 2010 and whopping 77.49% below it's peak in 2006.

Non-residential construction spending increased 1.78% since February but declined 10.19% since March 2010 and a whopping 42.05% below the peak level reached in October 2008.

The following charts (click for larger dynamic versions) show private residential construction spending, private residential single family construction spending and private non-residential construction spending broken out and plotted since 1993 along with the year-over-year, month-to-month and peak percent change to each since 1994 and 2000 – 2005.

ISM Manufacturing Report on Business: April 2011

Today, the Institute for Supply Management released their latest Report on Business for the manufacturing sector indicating that economic activity continued to expand in April though at a slightly slower pace than in March and an indication that most measures are in expansion.

At 60.4 the purchasing manager’s composite index (PMI) declined 1.31% since March but remained 1.34% above the level seen a year earlier and still sits very near the highest level seen in over 25 years.

Some respondents indicated increasing pressure on prices as higher energy prices stocked inflationary forces:

"Rapidly rising raw material costs putting extreme pressure on profits." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)

"Plastic resin product prices are climbing so fast that [suppliers] are attempting to increase prices on orders already accepted but not [yet] delivered." (Chemical Products)

"Customers are rebuilding safety stock levels of inventory, and also trying to buy ahead of material price increases." (Plastics & Rubber Products)