Constuction Spending: October 2011

Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released their latest read of construction spending showing near-cycle low levels of spending in October for residential construction while indicating a improvement for total non-residential spending.

On a month-to-month basis, total residential spending increased 3.36% from September and rose 1.95% above the level seen in October 2010 while remaining a whopping 64.67% below the peak level seen in 2006.

Single family construction spending increased 0.57% since September and rose 1.03% since October 2010 but remained a whopping 77.14% below it's peak in 2006.

Non-residential construction spending increased 1.34% since September climbing 7.55% above the level seen in October 2010 but remained a whopping 34.41% below the peak level reached in October 2008.

The following charts (click for larger dynamic versions) show private residential construction spending, private residential single family construction spending and private non-residential construction spending broken out and plotted since 1993 along with the year-over-year, month-to-month and peak percent change to each since 1994 and 2000 – 2005.

ISM Manufacturing Report on Business: November 2011

Today, the Institute for Supply Management released their latest Report on Business for the manufacturing sector indicating that manufacturing activity improved in November with assessments of many measures increasing.

At 52.7 the purchasing manager’s composite index (PMI) increased 3.74% since October but remained 9.45% below the level seen a year earlier.

Some respondents indicated that business in improving but orders remain weak:

"Business still holding its own. Some growth in margin now that some of the raw materials prices have abated. Oil is pushing $100 so that has not been favorable." (Chemical Products)

"Orders for the remaining two months have increased after an extended 'summer dip' in sales overall. We expect to finish the year approximately 10 percent above 2010." (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)

"Seeing a slight slowdown in orders; could be related to the holidays." (Primary Metals)

"Oil exploration seems to be really picking up. Government is permitting again, so business is the busiest we've ever seen." (Computer & Electronic Products)

"The EPS ruling about higher fees for coal-generated electricity can have a huge, negative impact on our business if implemented in January 2012. We are at the peak of our seasonal demand push." (Plastics & Rubber Products)

Extended Unemployment: Initial, Continued and Extended Unemployment Claims December 01 2011

Today’s jobless claims report showed an increase to both initial and continued unemployment claims as a slight rising trend was firmly called into question for initial claims.

Seasonally adjusted “initial” unemployment increased 6,000 to 402,000 claims from last week’s revised 396,000 claims while seasonally adjusted “continued” claims increased by 35,000 resulting in an “insured” unemployment rate of 3.0%.

Since the middle of 2008 though, two federal government sponsored “extended” unemployment benefit programs (the “extended benefits” and “EUC 2008” from recent legislation) have been picking up claimants that have fallen off of the traditional unemployment benefits rolls.

Currently there are some 3.52 million people receiving federal “extended” unemployment benefits.

Taken together with the latest 3.37 million people that are currently counted as receiving traditional continued unemployment benefits, there are 6.89 million people on state and federal unemployment rolls.