ECRI Weekly Leading Index: November 18 2011

The latest release of the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s (ECRI) Weekly Leading Index weakened slightly falling to 121.8 from last week resulting in the all important annualized “growth” component showing a value of -7.9 and continuing suggest a recession call on the part of the ECRI’s economics staff .

The chart above shows the ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index growth component since 2001.

Notice that this index has turned notably negative which, along with an erosion in many other key macro-economic series, appears to be signaling that the probability of recession is high.

For a very entertaining debate over the ECRI leading index and the recent recession call watch this clip of ECRI's Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan on CNBCs Squawk Box.

Hong Kong Bubble?: Hong Kong Residential Property Prices September 2011

Today, the University of Hong Kong released their Hong Kong Residential Real Estate Series (HKU-REIS) indicating that, in September, the price of residential properties declined a whopping 2.62% since August but still climbed 15.15% above the level seen in September 2010.

It appears that after a stunning run of monthly increases that saw prices increase dramatically, prices are beginning to show a notable pullback with all measures declining on the month.

The HKU-REIS is a set of property price indices constructed monthly using a “modified” repeat-sale methodology similar to that of the S&P/Case-Shiller indices yet suited to the Hong Kong property market.

New Residential Construction Report: October 2011

Today’s New Residential Construction Report showed that in October, both single family permits and starts increased from September with both measures continuing to show tepid results when compared on a year-over-year basis.

Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, increased 5.1% from last month to 434K single family units (SAAR), increasing 6.6% above the level seen in October 2010 but remaining an astonishing 75.86% below the peak in September 2005.

Single family housing starts increased 3.9% to 430K units (SAAR), but dropped 0.9% below the level seen in October 2010 and a stunning 76.41% below the peak set in early 2006.

With the substantial headwinds of elevated unemployment, epic levels of foreclosure and delinquency, mounting bankruptcies, contracting consumer credit, and falling real wages, an overhang of inventory and still falling home prices, the environment for “organic” home sales remains weak and likely very fragile.